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Africa's Growth Turnaround : From Fewer Mistakes to Sustained Growth

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World Bank (WB)

Abstract: After stagnating for much of its postcolonial history, economic performance in Sub?Saharan Africa has markedly improved. Since 1995, average economic growth has been close to 5 percent per year. Has Africa finally turned the corner? This paper analyzes growth accelerations and decelerations-that is, country level deviations from long?run trend growth. Seen from this perspective, Africa's record of slow and volatile growth reflects a pattern of offsetting accelerations and declines, and much of the improvement in economic performance in Africa post 1995 turns out to be due to a substantial reduction in the frequency and severity of growth decelerations. The fall in economic declines since 1995 is largely due to better macroeconomic policies, but changes in such 'growth determinants' as investment, export diversification, and productivity have not accompanied the growth boom. Lack of change in these variables and the significant role played by natural resources in sparking growth accelerations suggest that Africa's growth recovery was fragile, even before the recent global economic crisis. The paper concludes by setting out four elements of a strategy that can help move Africa from fewer mistakes to sustained growth: managing natural resources better, pushing nontraditional exports, building the African private sector, and creating new skills.
Type: Working Paper
Publications & Research :: Working Paper
Publications & Research
Link: http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27998
Subject: ABSOLUTE VALUE
ACCOUNTABILITY
AGGREGATE LEVEL
AGRICULTURE
AUCTIONS
AVERAGE GROWTH
AVERAGE GROWTH RATE
AVERAGE INCOME
AVERAGE INCOMES
BARRIERS TO ENTRY
BUREAUCRACY
BUSINESS CLIMATE
BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT
BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
CAPITAL FLIGHT
CAPITAL MARKETS
COMMODITIES
COMMODITY
COMMODITY PRICE
COMMODITY PRICES
COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGY
COMPETITION POLICY
COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES
COMPETITIVENESS
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
CONTRACT ENFORCEMENT
CORRUPTION
COUNTRY CASE
COUNTRY COVERAGE
COUNTRY DATA
COUNTRY LEVEL
CRIME
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
DEBT
DECISION MAKING
DEPENDENT VARIABLE
DEREGULATION
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
DEVELOPING REGIONS
DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE
DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
DEVELOPMENT PRACTITIONERS
DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS
DIRECT INVESTMENT
ECONOMETRIC MODELS
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
ECONOMIC CRISIS
ECONOMIC DECLINE
ECONOMIC EXPANSION
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ECONOMIC HISTORY
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
ECONOMIC POLICY
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
ECONOMIES OF SCALE
EMPIRICAL LITERATURE
EMPIRICAL RESULTS
ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS
EXCESS DEMAND
EXCHANGE RATE
EXCHANGE RATES
EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION
EXPORT GROWTH
EXPORT PROMOTION
EXPORTS
EXTERNAL SHOCKS
FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
FINANCIAL SECTOR
FINANCIAL SECTOR REFORMS
FINANCIAL SYSTEMS
FISCAL DEFICIT
FISCAL DEFICITS
FISCAL POLICIES
FISCAL POLICY
FIXED CAPITAL
FOOD PRICES
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS
FORMAL ECONOMY
GDP
GDP DEFLATOR
GDP PER CAPITA
GLOBAL ECONOMY
GLOBAL MARKETS
GOVERNANCE INDICATOR
GOVERNANCE INDICATORS
GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS
GROWTH DETERMINANTS
GROWTH LITERATURE
GROWTH PERFORMANCE
GROWTH RATE
GROWTH RATES
HEALTH CARE
HIGH GROWTH
HIGH INFLATION
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
INCOME DATA
INCOME GROWTH
INCOME INEQUALITY
INCOME LEVEL
INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT
INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES
INEQUALITY
INFANT MORTALITY
INFLATION
INSTITUTIONAL PERFORMANCE
INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS
INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLES
INSTITUTIONAL WEAKNESSES
INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL
INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
INVESTMENT CLIMATE
INVESTMENT RATE
INVESTMENT RATES
JOB CREATION
LABOR FORCE
LABOR MARKET
LANDLOCKED COUNTRIES
LIFE EXPECTANCY
LONG-RUN GROWTH
LONG­RUN
MACRO POLICY
MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
MACROECONOMIC POLICIES
MARKET INFRASTRUCTURE
MARKET REGULATION
MASSIVE INVESTMENTS
MEAN GROWTH
MULTILATERAL INSTITUTIONS
NATIONAL ACCOUNTS
NATIONAL INCOME
NATURAL RESOURCE
NATURAL RESOURCES
NEGATIVE IMPACT
OIL EXPORTERS
OUTPUT
OUTPUT RATIOS
PER CAPITA GROWTH
PER CAPITA INCOME
PERFORMANCE INDICATORS
POLICY MAKERS
POLICY PERSPECTIVE
POLICY REFORMS
POLITICAL COMPETITION
POLITICAL ECONOMY
POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS
POLITICAL LEADERS
POLITICAL STABILITY
POLITICAL SUPPORT
POOR COUNTRIES
POVERTY RATES
POVERTY REDUCTION
PRICE MOVEMENTS
PRIMARY EDUCATION
PRIVATE INVESTMENT
PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT
PRODUCTIVITY
PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
PUBLIC DEBT
PUBLIC EMPLOYMENT
PUBLIC EXPENDITURE
PUBLIC EXPENDITURES
PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS
PUBLIC INVESTMENT
PUBLIC POLICY
PUBLIC SECTOR
PUBLIC SECTOR MANAGEMENT
PUBLIC WORKS
PURCHASING POWER
PURCHASING POWER PARITY
RAPID EXPANSION
RAPID GROWTH
RATE OF GROWTH
REAL EXCHANGE RATE
REGULATORY QUALITY
REGULATORY REGIME
RICH COUNTRIES
RULE OF LAW
RURAL INFRASTRUCTURE
SAVINGS
SHARP REDUCTION
SMALL ENTERPRISES
SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURE
SOCIAL OUTCOMES
SOCIAL VARIABLES
STANDARD DEVIATION
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
STRUCTURAL BREAK
STRUCTURAL POLICIES
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
TELEPHONES
TOTAL COSTS
TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY
TRADE REFORMS
TRADE REGIME
TRANSACTION COSTS
TRANSPARENCY
TRANSPARENCY INITIATIVE
UNEMPLOYMENT
VOLATILITY
WAGES
WEALTH
WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
WTO
YOUTH




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