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More Growth or Fewer Collapses? A New Look at Long Run Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

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World Bank (WB)

Abstract: Low and highly volatile growth define Africa's growth experience. But there is no evidence that growth volatility is associated to long term economic performance. This result may be misleading if it suggests that volatility is not important for economic and social progress. In this paper we use a variant of the method developed by Hausmann, Pritchett, and Rodrik (2005) to identify both growth acceleration and deceleration episodes in Africa between 1975 and 2005. The authors find that Africa has had numerous growth acceleration episodes in the last 30 years, but also nearly a comparable number of growth collapses, offsetting most of the benefits of growth. Had Africa avoided its growth collapses, it would have grown 1.7 percent a year instead of 0.7 percent, and its GDP per capita would have been more than 30 percent higher in 2005. The authors also find that growth accelerations and decelerations have an asymmetric impact on human development outcomes. Finally, our results suggest that it is easier to identify the likely institutional and policy origins of growth decelerations than of growth accelerations.
Type: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Publications & Research
Link: http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7533
Subject: ACCOUNTABILITY
ACTUAL GROWTH
AGGREGATE LEVEL
AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
AVERAGE GROWTH
AVERAGE GROWTH RATE
AVERAGE GROWTH RATES
AVERAGE INCOME
CAPITA INCOME GROWTH
CONSUMER PRICE
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
CORRELATION ANALYSIS
CORRELATION COEFFICIENT
CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS
CORRUPTION
COUNTRY DATA
COUNTRY LEVEL
CROSS COUNTRY
CROSS COUNTRY EVIDENCE
DEPENDENT VARIABLE
DETERMINANTS OF GROWTH
DEVELOPING REGIONS
DEVELOPMENT GOALS
DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
DIRECT INVESTMENT
ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
ECONOMIC CONTRACTIONS
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ECONOMIC LITERATURE
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
ECONOMIC REFORMS
EFFECTS OF VOLATILITY
EMPIRICAL STUDIES
ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS
EXCHANGE RATE
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
GOOD GOVERNANCE
GOVERNANCE INDICATOR
GOVERNANCE INDICATORS
GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION
GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS
GROWTH ACCELERATIONS
GROWTH PATH
GROWTH PERFORMANCE
GROWTH RATE
GROWTH RATES
GROWTH SUCCESSES
GROWTH VOLATILITY
HEALTH OUTCOMES
HIGH GROWTH
HIGH INFLATION
HIGHER VOLATILITY
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
INCOME GROWTH
INCOME PER CAPITA
INFANT MORTALITY
INSTITUTIONAL PERFORMANCE
INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLES
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
LINK BETWEEN VOLATILITY
LONG RUN
MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
MEDIUM TERM
MEDIUM TERM GROWTH
NATIONAL ACCOUNTS
NATURAL RESOURCES
OIL EXPORTERS
OVERALL RATE OF GROWTH
PER CAPITA GROWTH
PER CAPITA INCOME
POLICY MAKERS
POLICY RESEARCH
POLITICAL CONDITIONS
POLITICAL STABILITY
POOR GOVERNANCE
POVERTY REDUCTION
POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY
PRIVATE SECTOR
PUBLIC POLICY
PURCHASING POWER
RAPID GROWTH
RATE OF GROWTH
REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE
REGULATORY QUALITY
RICH COUNTRIES
RULE OF LAW
SHARP REDUCTION
SOCIAL OUTCOMES
SOCIAL VARIABLES
STAGNATION
STRUCTURAL BREAK
STRUCTURAL POLICIES
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
SUSTAINABLE GROWTH
THE GAMBIA
UNDER 5 MORTALITY




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