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Use of Catastrophe Risk Models in Assessing Sovereign Food Security for Risk Transfer

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World Bank (WB)

Abstract: This paper discusses how catastrophe crop risk models can be used to assess food security needs at the sovereign level for the purpose of risk transfer. The rationale for a system to evaluate food security needs at the national level is discussed. The role of technology and remote sensing data availability as an enabler of catastrophe crop risk models is discussed followed by a description of the framework of catastrophe crop models for droughts, representing the peril for which catastrophe models have had the most success. The integration of the output of catastrophe crop models with a food security vulnerability assessment model is described next. Recent advances in analytical modeling of various types of shocks in assessing food security are described but the operational use of these analytical models in the development of food security assessment for risk transfer is seen to be limited for now because of the complexity of these analytical models. The food security vulnerability modeling in the African Risk Capacity, ARC, model is then described as showing a practical solution to the complex problem of assessing food security via a model. Lastly, the challenges faced in risk transfer of sovereign food security risks are discussed.
Type: Working Paper
Publications & Research
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Link: http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22233
Subject: FOOD PRICE
SAFETY NET PROGRAMS
RISKS
FOOD NEEDS
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
GLOBAL FOOD SUPPLY
POVERTY LINE
ECONOMIC GROWTH
FOOD FOR ALL
RISK REDUCTION
FAMINES
GLOBAL MARKETS
FOOD UTILIZATION
INCOME
POVERTY RATES
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
REDUCING HUNGER
NUTRITIOUS FOODS
ACCESS TO IRRIGATION
LIVESTOCK RESEARCH
RURAL POOR
AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME
DEATH
FOOD AID
FOOD POLICY
RURAL LIVELIHOODS
NATIONAL FOOD SECURITY
IFPRI
POOR PEOPLE
SMALL SCALE FARMERS
HUNGER
FOOD SECURITY ISSUES
RURAL POVERTY RATE
RURAL POPULATION
RURAL POOR
CONFLICT
CROP YIELD
MEASURES
REGION
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
HOUSEHOLD INCOME
MAIZE
CROP YIELD
SAVINGS
CROP PRODUCTION
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES
RURAL HOUSEHOLDS
FARMING PRACTICES
MARKET DEVELOPMENT
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY
FOOD POLICY RESEARCH
FOOD PRICE
GROUNDNUT
FOOD SUMMIT
NATURAL DISASTERS
CROP YIELDS
AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY PRICES
POOR RURAL HOUSEHOLDS
HOUSEHOLD INCOME
HAZARD
ARID LANDS
FOOD‐SECURITY
AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY
FOOD AVAILABILITY
FOOD PRODUCTION
FARMERS
FAMINE
FOOD AID
FOOD PRODUCTION
MARKET PRICE
FOOD BUYERS
FOOD ITEMS
FOOD ACCESS
CROP YIELDS
HOUSEHOLD LEVEL
STAPLE FOODS
MARKET ANALYSIS
FOOD SECURITY
FOOD INSECURITY
FOOD EMERGENCY
CLIMATE CHANGE
DROUGHT
SMALL‐SCALE FARMERS
FOOD ASSISTANCE
LOCAL MARKET
VULNERABLE GROUPS
AGRICULTURAL INSURANCE
NUTRITION SECURITY
FARMING HOUSEHOLDS
RURAL POVERTY RATES
RURAL POVERTY
CANADA
AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY
FOOD EXPENDITURE
AGRICULTURE
FOOD SHORTAGE
MALNUTRITION
RURAL
NUTRITION
WFP
LAND SIZE
FOOD
AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES
AGRICULTURAL INPUTS
FOOD SHORTAGE
INSURANCE
FOOD INSECURITY
GROUNDNUTS
HUMAN RIGHTS
FOOD CRISIS
WORLD FOOD SUMMIT
SUBSISTENCE FARMERS
IRRIGATION
SMALLHOLDER FARMING
RURAL AREAS
POVERTY
REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION
DROUGHT RISK
AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY PRICES
FOOD SUPPLY
FOOD‐DEFICIT
FEED
REGIONAL EFFORTS
FOOD AVAILABILITY
FARM LABOUR
RURAL POVERTY RATES
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY
FOOD SECURITY
RISK MANAGEMENT
STAPLE FOOD NEEDS
FOOD POLICY RESEARCH
LIVELIHOODS
POOR
FOOD SECURITY STATUS
RISK MANAGEMENT
MARKET DEVELOPMENT
WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME
FOOD PRICES
RURAL DEVELOPMENT
FOOD INSECURE HOUSEHOLDS
FOODS
FOOD STAPLES




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