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Lifting Economic Sanctions on Iran : Global Effects and Strategic Responses

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World Bank (WB)

Abstract: This paper uses a global general equilibrium simulation model to quantify the effects of lifting economic sanctions on Iran with and without strategic responses. Iran benefits the most, with average per capita welfare gains ranging from close to 3 percent, in the case when Iran's crude oil exports to the European Union recover to half their pre-embargo level, to 6.5 percent, in the best case of complete recovery of oil exports to the European Union, successful domestic reforms that enable a strong supply response, and increased market access for Iranian exports in developed markets. Iran could achieve benefits close to the upper range if Gulf Cooperation Council oil exporters limit their crude oil exports to support the oil price. If they do nothing, however, the price of oil will decline by 13 percent in the case of complete recovery of oil exports to the European Union, leaving net oil importers better off and net oil exporters worse off.
Type: Working Paper
Publications & Research
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Link: http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23726
Subject: OIL IMPORTERS
TIME HORIZON
AUTOMOBILE
AUTO PRODUCTION
CANE
ECONOMIC GROWTH
OIL PRICE
ANIMAL PRODUCTS
PRODUCTION
STRUCTURAL CHANGE
VEHICLES
ACTIVITIES
TRADE BARRIERS
OIL OUTPUT
OIL SUPPLY
EXPORTS
WOOD PRODUCTS
ELASTICITY
EXPORTERS
WELFARE
ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
EQUILIBRIUM
GAS
BARRELS PER DAY
CRUDE OIL EXTRACTION
PRICE
EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT
TAX
DOMESTIC OIL
INPUTS
OIL CONSUMPTION
OIL PRODUCTION
PAYMENTS
MARKET ACCESS
AIR
TRANSPORT SERVICES
CENTRAL BANK
OILS
OIL PRICES
PETROLEUM
TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY
OIL DEMAND
EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS
GLOBAL ECONOMY
ECONOMIC RESTRICTIONS
COSTS
AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES
PER CAPITA INCOME
OIL
TRADE RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
TRANSPORT
REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
OIL ACCOUNTS
TRADING BLOCS
BASE YEAR
PRODUCTIVITY
WATER
DOMESTIC OIL CONSUMPTION
GAS TECHNOLOGY
MARKETS
WTO
OIL IMPORTS
WORLD PRICES
TRUE
SUGAR CANE
IMPORTS
AUTOMOBILE PRODUCTION
TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT
UTILITY
SUPPLY RESPONSE
TAXES
AUTOMOBILES
BORDER TRADE
CONSUMPTION
GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM
DRIVING
TRAVEL
TRANSPORTATION
OIL MARKET
CAPITAL
WAGES
GLOBAL MARKET
POLICIES
FINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE
CARS
POWER
COMPETITIVENESS
ELECTRICITY
PRICE OF OIL
PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION
WORLD ECONOMY
DEMAND
OIL IMPORTING COUNTRIES
UTILITY FUNCTION
OIL EXPORTING COUNTRIES
ECONOMY
CONSUMERS
AGRICULTURE
EXCESS DEMAND
MOTOR VEHICLES
CHEMICAL PRODUCTS
OIL EXPORTS
TARIFF BARRIERS
NET OIL
BENCHMARK
EXPORT REVENUE
CAPITAL GOODS
CAPITAL USE
TRADE
WORLD PRICE
FOREIGN COMPETITION
NATURAL GAS
AIR TRANSPORT
GDP
GOODS
THEORY
BILATERAL TRADE
OIL EXPORTERS
INVESTMENT
COAL
TARIFF
SUPPLY
CRUDE OIL
SEA TRANSPORT
TARIFFS ON IMPORTS
REGIME CHANGE
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
TRANSPORT COSTS
OUTCOMES
TRADING PARTNERS
OIL USE
TRADE REGIME
EXPORT COMMODITY
PRICES
APPROACH
BENEFITS
ECONOMIES
ENERGY
DEVELOPMENT POLICY




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