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Infrastructure in Conflict-Prone and Fragile Environments : Evidence from the Democratic Republic of Congo

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World Bank (WB)

Abstract: In conflict-prone situations, access to markets is necessary to restore economic growth and generate the preconditions for peace and reconstruction. Hence, the rehabilitation of damaged transport infrastructure has emerged as an overarching investment priority among donors and governments. This paper brings together two distinct strands of literature on the effects of conflict on welfare and on the economic impact of transport infrastructure. The theoretical model explores how transport infrastructure affects conflict incidence and welfare when selection into rebel groups is endogenous. The implications of the model are tested with data from the Democratic Republic of Congo. The analysis addresses the problems of the endogeneity of transport costs and conflict using a novel set of instrumental variables. For transport costs, a new instrument is developed, the natural-historical path, which measures the most efficient travel route to a market, taking into account topography, land cover, and historical caravan routes. Recognizing the imprecision in measuring the geographic impacts of conflict, the analysis develops a spatial kernel density function to proxy for the incidence of conflict. To account for its endogeneity, it is instrumented with ethnic fractionalization and distance to the eastern border. A variety of indicators of well-being are used: a wealth index, a poverty index, and local gross domestic product. The results suggest that, in most situations, reducing transport costs has the expected beneficial impacts on all the measures of welfare. However, when there is intense conflict, improvements in infrastructure may not have the anticipated benefits. The results suggest the need for more nuanced strategies that take into account varying circumstances and consider actions that jointly target governance with construction activities.
Type: Working Paper
Publications & Research
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Link: http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22005
Subject: SANITATION
RISKS
ECONOMIC GROWTH
PRICE OF FUEL
INCOME
VEHICLE SPEED
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE
TRANSPORTATION COSTS
NATIONS
TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURES
ELASTICITY
ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION
POLITICAL ECONOMY
AGGLOMERATION BENEFITS
CONVENTION
TRAVEL SPEED
PROJECTS
TRAFFIC
ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE
HIGHWAY SYSTEM
TAX
ROUTES
FARM HOUSEHOLDS
GROSS VEHICLE WEIGHT
WEALTH
INDEPENDENCE
CONFLICT
AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT
INTERNATIONAL BANK
MEASURES
WARFARE
TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE
ROAD TYPE
REBELS
POVERTY REDUCTION
POLARIZATION
TRAVEL COSTS
VEHICLE
ARMED CONFLICT
CONSTRAINT
FUNDS FOR ROADS
EXPLOITATION
CROP PRODUCTION
ROAD
COSTS
RURAL HOUSEHOLDS
TRANSPORTATION NETWORK
ROAD NETWORK
TRANSPORT
IMPACT OF TRANSPORT
FOREIGN AID
HOUSEHOLD HEAD
INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM
GOVERNMENT CONTROL
EXPERTS
TRANSFERS
VIOLENCE
HOUSEHOLD INCOME
LOCAL CONFLICT
COSTS PER VEHICLE
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
ECONOMIC SANCTIONS
EMERGENCY RESPONSE
ROAD IMPROVEMENT
WELFARE INDICATORS
FARMERS
RURAL ROADS
ROUTE
RULE OF LAW
BETTER ACCESS TO MARKETS
ROAD QUALITY
AVERAGE DAILY TRAFFIC
INFRASTRUCTURE
LAND USE
NUTRITIONAL STATUS
TRANSPORT NETWORK
HUMAN CAPITAL
FARMLAND
TRAVEL
TRANSPORTATION
POLICIES
POVERTY INDEX
FEMALE-HEADED HOUSEHOLDS
CARS
RURAL AREA
REBEL
ACCESSIBILITY
RURAL INFRASTRUCTURE
POPULATION DENSITY
ECONOMY
VIOLENT CONFLICT
AGRICULTURAL LAND
MALNUTRITION
RURAL
NATION
NUTRITION
BATTLE
ACCESS TO MARKETS
HIGHWAYS
BATTLES
ROADS
CHILD MORTALITY
CAR
WALKING
HIGHWAY
RAILWAYS
SUBSISTENCE FARMERS
COST OF TRANSPORT
INTERNAL WAR
WARS
TRANSPORTATION COST
WAR
ACCESS TO SERVICES
PEDESTRIAN
RURAL AREAS
POVERTY
RAILROADS
FATALITIES
FUEL
REMOTE COMMUNITIES
REHABILITATION
CONFLICTS
UNIVERSITY
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY
INVESTMENTS
POVERTY DYNAMICS
RURAL ROAD
HOUSEHOLD WELFARE
CIVIL WAR
POOR
POVERTY IMPACT
TRANSPORT COSTS
CIVIL WARS
ROAD TRANSPORT
ECONOMIC SHOCKS
TRAVEL TIME
FATALITY
PEACE
INFRASTRUCTURES
RECONSTRUCTION
RURAL RESIDENCE
ECONOMIES
ROAD TRAFFIC
BOTTLENECKS
INEQUALITY




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