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A Product Space Perspective on Structural Change in Morocco

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World Bank (WB)

Abstract: Drawing on international trade data, this paper uses the product space approach to analyze changes in Morocco’s goods exports in 1990–2010 and future export priorities. The level of Morocco’s gross domestic product and its moderate growth match the predictions of product space analysis, informed by changes in the income potential of Morocco’s export basket, reflecting relatively strong capabilities (a high density) in products with relatively low potentials in income and diversification. Morocco’s peripheral position in the product space map matches its slow growth and points to the difficulty of diversification into more sophisticated products. Encouraging changes since 1990 include the development of a revealed comparative advantage for medium- and high-tech manufactures, which in 2010 represented around 40 percent of total goods exports. However, the number of goods involved is relatively small and this transformation has not sufficed to raise per capita growth to the average for middle-income countries. Export projections up to 2025 suggest that future developments will follow the trends of the past. Among sectors, high growth is likely for phosphate-based fertilizer exports. However, like edible oil products, which also may grow rapidly, phosphates are hampered by low income and diversification potentials. Along with various other manufactured products, electronics and the automotive industry are promising sectors that may offer more lasting positive contributions to Morocco’s future development. Beyond goods, Morocco’s policy makers should also consider the potential contributions of service exports, which in recent years have enjoyed rapid growth.
Type: Working Paper
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Publications & Research
Link: http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22860
Subject: GROWTH RATE
MERCHANDISE
EXPORT GROWTH
EXPORT MARKETS
ECONOMIC GROWTH
PRODUCTION
STOCK
STRUCTURAL CHANGE
INCOME
SALES
CHEMICAL
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
INDUSTRY
PRODUCERS
GDP PER CAPITA
EXPORTS
SERVICES
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
INCENTIVES
MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRY
VARIABLES
WAGE DIFFERENTIALS
PRICE
INPUTS
WEALTH
MERCHANDISE TRADE
TRENDS
DEVELOPMENT
INFLUENCE
MARGINAL PRODUCTS
IRON
PER CAPITA INCOME
DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
EXPORT GROWTH
BRANDS
ANIMAL OILS
PER CAPITA INCOME
TEXTILE INDUSTRY
CONSTRUCTION
EXCHANGE RATES
NATURAL RESOURCES
PRODUCTS
MONOPOLY
INCREASING RETURNS
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
MARKETS
MERCHANDISE EXPORTS
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
TRADE POLICIES
INCOME LEVELS
INCOME LEVELS
RESEARCH
IMPORTS
PRODUCT
BASKET OF GOODS
NATURAL RESOURCES
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
EXPORT MARKETS
TRADE POLICIES
PRODUCTION INPUTS
TAXES
HUMAN CAPITAL
VALUE ADDED
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
MERCHANDISE EXPORTS
FUTURE
VALUE
FATS
COMPETITIVENESS
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
DEMAND
SUSTAINABLE USE
COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE
AGRICULTURE
EXCHANGE RATES
MARKET SHARE
MARKET
GROWTH POTENTIAL
DIVERSIFICATION
MERCHANDISE EXPORT
STRUCTURAL CHANGE
SUSTAINABLE USE
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
TRADE
GDP
EXPORT‐LED GROWTH
GOODS
LAND
THEORY
MARKET SHARE
GROWTH RATE
COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE
TANNING
MEAT
SUPPLY
WAGE DIFFERENTIALS
INVESTMENTS
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
VALUE ADDED
GDP PER CAPITA
COMMODITIES
MIDDLE‐INCOME COUNTRIES
INCREASING RETURNS
MARGINAL PRODUCTS
COMMODITY
GROWTH POTENTIAL
WORLD MARKET
ECONOMIC GROWTH
SERVICE
PRICES
PRODUCTION INPUTS
MERCHANDISE EXPORT
DEVELOPMENT POLICY
SUGAR




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