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Losing the Gains of the Past : The Welfare and Distributional Impacts of the Twin Crises in Iraq 2014

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World Bank (WB)

Abstract: Iraq was plunged into two simultaneous crises in the second half of 2014, one driven by a sharp decline in oil prices, the other, by the war against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. The severity and recurrent nature of these crises demand a fast understanding and quantification of their welfare impact, which is critical for policy makers. This paper employs an innovative extension of the micro-simulation methodology to provide an ex ante estimate and analysis of the complex and dynamic poverty and distributional impact of the twin crises. The results show an almost complete erosion of the welfare gains of the past, with poverty falling back to 2007 levels and a 20 percent increase in the number of the poor. While the incidence of poverty is higher among internally displaced persons than the rest of the population (except in the Islamic State–affected governorates, where poverty is higher), internally displaced persons make up only a small proportion of Iraq's eight million poor in 2014. The rest comprise of households who already lived below the poverty line, or those who have fallen below the poverty line in the face of the massive economic disruptions the country is facing. The welfare impact of the crises varies widely across space, with the largest increases in poverty headcount rates in Kurdistan and the Islamic State–affected governorates. Yet, the poorest regions in the 2014 crisis scenario are the same as in 2012, the currently Islamic State–affected, and the South, with poverty rates of 40 and 30 percent, respectively. Although the simulated results are not strictly comparable to ex post micro data estimates, because of survey coverage constraints, overall the results are very much in line, particularly in Kurdistan and the South.
Type: Working Paper
Publications & Research
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
Link: http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23900
Subject: HOUSEHOLD INCOMES
LIVING STANDARDS
PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION
HOUSEHOLD SIZE
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
WELFARE MEASURE
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
POVERTY LINE
DURABLE GOODS
ECONOMIC GROWTH
POVERTY LEVELS
POVERTY ‐HEAD
INCOME
SCHOOLING
POVERTY INDICES
PROJECTIONS
POVERTY RATES
HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION
NATIONAL POVERTY LINE
REGIONAL LEVEL
UTILITY MAXIMIZATION
EXPORTS
AGGREGATE POVERTY
ELASTICITY
MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS
FOOD PRICES
HOUSING
WELFARE
OPTIMIZATION
NATIONAL POVERTY
POOR PEOPLE
DISTRIBUTION
VARIABLES
DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS
INPUTS
INFLATION
MEASURES
POVERTY MEASURES
INCOME GENERATION
NEW POOR
TRENDS
REGION
ECONOMIC SHOCK
NEW POOR
POVERTY REDUCTION
HOUSEHOLD INCOME
SMOOTHING CONSUMPTION
REGIONAL POVERTY
INFLUENCE
FOOD BASKET
PER CAPITA INCOME
HOUSEHOLD INCOMES
PER CAPITA INCOME
INCOME DISTRIBUTION
POVERTY GAP
SOCIAL PROTECTION
RENT
FOOD PRICE
POVERTY INCIDENCE
ECONOMETRICS
FOOD REQUIREMENTS
TRANSFERS
TRANSFERS IN KIND
POVERTY HEADCOUNT RATES
PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION
HOUSEHOLD INCOME
LACK OF INFORMATION
CARTEL
HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS
SOCIAL PROTECTION
INCOME LEVELS
CALORIE INTAKE
ECONOMIC POLICIES
DIVIDENDS
CHANGES IN POVERTY
UTILITY
PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION
FOOD ITEMS
TAXES
FOOD ITEMS
UNEMPLOYMENT
CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA
POVERTY LINES
SAFETY NET TRANSFERS
CONSUMPTION
LIVING STANDARDS
WAGES
ECONOMIC POLICIES
POVERTY RATES
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
INCOME GAINS
FINANCIAL CRISIS
ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS
VALUE
POVERTY ‐HEAD
POVERTY LINE
AGGREGATE POVERTY
POVERTY IMPACT
ECONOMIC SECTORS
FAMILY INCOME
SAFETY NET
INCOME DISTRIBUTION
AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
EMPLOYMENT STATUS
AGRICULTURE
RURAL
FOOD BASKET
POVERTY LINES
TRANSFERS IN KIND
NATIONAL POVERTY LINE
ECONOMIC SECTOR
PRIVATE TRANSFERS
ECONOMIC SECTOR
POVERTY INDICES
INFLATION RATES
INSURANCE
TAXATION
MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS
TRADE
POOR POPULATION
GDP
WELFARE MEASURES
GOODS
FINANCIAL CRISIS
HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA
THEORY
FOOD SHARE
REGIONS
GROWTH RATE
WAR
BASIC FOOD REQUIREMENTS
WELFARE MEASURES
PRIVATE TRANSFERS
ACCESS TO SERVICES
POOR HOUSEHOLDS
DURABLE GOODS
POVERTY
ACCESS TO SERVICES
INCIDENCE OF POVERTY
INCIDENCE OF POVERTY
HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION
POVERTY GAP
INFORMAL EMPLOYMENT
INCOME GAINS
POVERTY MEASURES
HOUSEHOLD WELFARE
UNDERESTIMATES
POOR
CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA
MACROECONOMIC POLICIES
WELFARE MEASURE
POVERTY HEADCOUNT RATES
TOTAL OUTPUT
POVERTY IMPACT
LACK OF INFORMATION
FOOD PRICES
CONSUMPTION LEVELS
OUTCOMES
POVERTY INCIDENCE
PRICES
GROWTH PROJECTIONS
DEVELOPMENT POLICY
INCOME GROUPS
INEQUALITY
POOR HOUSEHOLDS
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY




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